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            The actuarially fair insurance premium reflects the expected loss for each insured. Given the dearth of cyber security loss data, market premiums could shed light on the true magnitude of cyber losses despite noise from factors unrelated to losses. To that end, we extract cyber insurance pricing information from the regulatory filings of 26 insurers. We provide empirical observations on how premiums vary by coverage type, amount, policyholder type, and over time. A method using Particle Swarm Optimization is introduced to iterate through candidate parameterized distributions with the goal of reducing error in predicting observed prices. We then aggregate the inferred loss models across 6,828 observed prices from all 26 insurers to derive the County Fair Cyber Loss Distribution. We demonstrate its value in decision support by applying it to a theoretical retail firm with annual revenue of $50M. The results suggest that the expected cyber liability loss is $428K, and that the firm faces a 2.3%chance of experiencing a cyber liability loss between $100K and $10M each year. The method could help organizations better manage cyber risk, regardless of whether they purchase insurance.more » « less
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